Sydney Should Prepare for Future Water Shortages

In September, The SMH raised an alarming issue – Sydney should prepare for future water shortages – as Sydney’s water supply is dwindling rapidly, and the situation is expected to worsen with the increasing impacts of climate change and the city’s booming population.

The main problem lies in Sydney’s heavy reliance on rainwater to fill its dams, which then becomes the primary source of drinking water. However, as rainfall patterns become less predictable and droughts more frequent, this crucial water source is diminishing.

The 2021 Greater Sydney Water strategy paints a grim picture, projecting a staggering increase of 250 gigalitres in annual drinking water requirements by 2060. To put it into perspective, that’s equivalent to half the volume of Sydney Harbour. This escalating demand for water is exacerbated by the current El Niño period and Australia’s driest August to October period since 1900, as reported by The ABC.

Warragamba Dam, which supplies approximately 80% of Sydney’s water, was constructed in 1960 when the city’s population was just over 2 million. Fast forward to today, with more than 5 million residents, and projections pointing to around 9 million by 2060, it’s evident that the gap between supply and demand is widening. We’ve got a population that increases each year, so we’ve got to serve more people with less water. That demand is already surpassing the long-term sustainable yield.

Population growth

This precarious situation prompts the question: Why is the federal government persisting with an aggressive population growth strategy, especially in the driest continent on Earth?

The 2023 Intergenerational Report forecasts a population of 40.5 million by 2062-63, primarily driven by annual net overseas migration (NOM) of 235,000. This rapid growth means that in just four decades, Australia’s population will swell to the size of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Adelaide combined, with Sydney and Melbourne becoming megacities of around 9 million people each. This ambitious trajectory raises concerns about Australia’s ability to meet the water and food demands of millions more people, especially during droughts.

Infrastructure investment

To accommodate this projected population increase, Australia would need to invest in a series of expensive, energy-intensive, and environmentally harmful water desalination plants. Desalination is notably costlier than conventional water sources, resulting in higher water prices for consumers. Additionally, supplying desalinated water to inland areas, such as Western Sydney, presents logistical challenges and increased costs due to the need to pump water uphill over vast distances.

The consequence of this population-driven water infrastructure expansion is that residential and business water rates would skyrocket, disproportionately affecting lower-income households. Infrastructure Australia predicts a staggering increase in real household water bills from $1,226 in 2017 to $6,000 in 2067, primarily due to population growth and climate change pressures.

In light of the impending water scarcity exacerbated by climate change, it raises valid concerns about the sustainability and feasibility of pursuing a ‘Big Australia’ immigration policy on a continent known for its aridity. Balancing population growth with responsible resource management is crucial to ensure a sustainable and livable future for Australia.

Bigger Implications

It is imperative to delve deeper into the challenges and potential consequences associated with the intersection of Australia’s rapid population growth, climate change, and water scarcity. The intricate relationship between these factors highlights the urgent need for a more comprehensive and sustainable approach to managing the country’s resources and demographics.

Climate Change and Water Scarcity:

Climate change is undeniably impacting Australia’s water resources. As temperatures increase -weather patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable, and the country faces a heightened risk of prolonged droughts, decreased rainfall, and more intense heatwaves. These factors have a direct and profound effect on the availability of freshwater, which is critical for not only sustaining the population but also supporting agriculture, industry, and the environment.

Sydney’s water supply dilemma serves as a stark example of the challenges many parts of Australia are confronting. The city’s dependence on rainwater to fill its dams has proven to be vulnerable as droughts become more frequent and severe. This precarious reliance on a single water source underscores the need for diversification and resilience in water supply infrastructure.

Population Growth and Urbanization:

Australia’s population is growing at a remarkable pace, primarily fueled by immigration. The 2023 Intergenerational Report projects a population of 40.5 million by 2062-63, transforming cities like Sydney and Melbourne into megacities with around 9 million residents each. This demographic shift has pros and cons

On one hand, a growing population can drive economic development, cultural diversity, and innovation. On the other hand, it increases pressure on essential resources, including water, energy, housing, and transportation. As cities expand to accommodate the influx of people, the demand for water escalates, exacerbating the strain on already stressed water sources.

Water Desalination:

To meet the water demands of a burgeoning population and counteract the effects of climate change-induced droughts, Australia has increasingly turned to water desalination. Desalination plants extract salt and impurities from seawater or brackish groundwater to produce freshwater. While these plants offer a viable solution to water scarcity, they come with their own set of challenges.

Desalination is an energy-intensive process, often reliant on fossil fuels, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the construction and operation of desalination facilities can have detrimental environmental impacts, including harm to marine ecosystems and habitats. These environmental concerns must be carefully considered as Australia contemplates expanding its desalination infrastructure.

Economic and Social Implications:

The economic consequences of addressing water scarcity through desalination are significant. As desalinated water is more expensive to produce than conventional sources, consumers can expect higher water bills. This burden falls disproportionately on lower-income households, potentially exacerbating inequality.

Additionally, the need to transport desalinated water to inland areas, especially in regions like Western Sydney, involves complex logistics and substantial costs. The energy required to pump water over long distances, often uphill, further contributes to the environmental footprint of desalination.

Balancing Growth and Sustainability:

Australia faces a critical dilemma: how to reconcile its aspirations for a larger population and economic growth with the imperative of environmental sustainability and resource conservation. While population growth can be beneficial, it must be managed carefully to ensure that the natural environment and essential resources, like water, are not irreparably strained.

As the federal government pursues its ‘Big Australia’ immigration policy, it must adopt a holistic and long-term approach to address the water challenge. This approach should encompass investment in water infrastructure resilience, exploration of alternative water sources, greater emphasis on water conservation practices, and a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with desalination.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the confluence of climate change, population growth, and water scarcity presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for Australia. Addressing this challenge requires visionary policy-making, sustainable resource management, and a commitment to balancing growth with environmental stewardship. The choices made today will shape Australia’s future, determining whether it can thrive in an era of increasing uncertainty and change.

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